Sail-World.com : Day 3 Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach RW weather
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Day 3 Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach RW weather |
After an excellent day's competition on Day 2 of Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week, the Bureau of Meteorology is predicting good breeze for the start of racing on Day 3 of the series.
For all classes, except IRC, today is scheduled as a passage race to Grumbell Island, approximately 24 nautical miles for the Performance and Cruising classes and 20 nautical miles for the Non-spinnaker and sportsboat fleets. Start time is 10.00am and with the Bureau predicting good morning breeze, easing in the afternoon, all can look forward to the prospect of another day's great competition.
The IRC divisions will be racing two windward/leeward races commencing at 11.20am
2008 Meridien Marinas Airlie Beach Race Week Day 3 Weather
Nil Warnings current.
Synoptic Discussion:
What a day! Land breeze gave way to light and variable conditions before the ever faithfull Trade wind exerted its presence, particularly in the Channel area. As the afternoon went along however, the sea breeze finally took hold throughout with light to moderate E to NE’lies being observed over the race area.
High cloud will increase over most of the state into Monday and then clear off the coast late in the day. There is the small possibility of very light rain occurring with this cloud band. The high over the head of the Bight will move eastwards from Monday onwards and move into the Tasman Sea on Wednesday in a weakening mode.
Observations:
At 0700hr surface winds over the Airlie Beach area were out of the SW averaging around 4-8kn (land breeze) and the temperature was around 6deg. At Hamilton Island the wind was SSE’ly at 20kn gusting 23kn, (temp 17C, pressure 1020hPa) indicative of the synoptic flow aided by topographic forcing.
Forecast Winds for middle of Pioneer Bay
1000: 200-160deg 8-12kn gust 15kn could be 2kn stronger?
Noon: 150-130deg 8-13kn gust 16kn could be 2kn stronger?
1400: 140-120deg 10-14kn gust 18kn
1600: 130-110deg 10-13kn gust 16kn
1800: 150-130deg 8-10 kn gust 15kn
Note 1: Wind direction range in degrees MAGNETIC, first speed is 10 min average and last speed is the maximum one minute gust during the 10min period leading up to the forecast hour. All at a height of 10m.
Note 2: The trend in both wind direction and speed is one of the most important aspects of any marine forecast Forecast values will differ from observed values from time to time for a number of reasons including yacht’s position within race area, compass calibration, instrument calibration, land mass in wind flow, etc
Discussion
With the ridge axis lying north of the area, it’s expected that the synoptic (weather map induced) wind will dominate over the sea breeze component today. As such the wind is expected to commence out of the S and trend left during the day. The sea breeze component is expected to drag the direction more left in the Pioneer Bay area (particularly closer to the land) as opposed to the Channel.
Wind lighter in lee of any landmass and a little stronger due to convergence around headlands.
Natural oscillations today around 15 to 25 deg away from effects of topography, tending around 20 to 50 deg closer to the effects of any land mass.
Other Possibilities
Wind in Whitsunday & Molle Channels could be 2-5 stronger than forecast above and about 20deg more right?
Direction could reach 10-20deg more left than forecast in Pioneer Bay, particularly close to coast.
Weather
Dry with high cloud increasing. Take plenty of sunscreen and warm clothes.
Maximum land temperature at Airlie Beach: 20-21 degrees Sea Temp: about 21 degrees.
Wind Waves: 0.2 to 1.0metres Less near land, more when wind wave opposes tidal current.
(Wave heights quoted are Significant wave heights).
Current: Another big ebb this afternoon. Be very careful particularly in the Channels.
Remember: Tide floods to the south and ebbs to the north in the Whitsundays.
Tide: High of 2.66m at 1047hr and low of 0.44 at 1628hr.
Outlook
Monday: SW/SE winds 5-10 knots at first increasing to 12-18 knots during morning.
Tuesday: SW/SE winds 8-10 knots at first increasing to 15-22 knots during morning.
by Al Constable
9:33 PM Sat 16 Aug 2008 GMT
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